Predictions for online advertising in 2006

Adverblog has found some predictions for online advertising in 2006.

1. Consumer-generated media will become increasingly attractive to advertisers

2. Advertisers will continue shifting traditional ad spending to the Web due to increased Internet consumption and better targeting/reporting capabilities

3. Advertisers, cable providers and interactive marketing experts will collaborate to address „The TiVo Effect“

4. Brand advertisers will drive the next wave of growth for the paid search market

5. Best practices in localized mobile marketing will be perfected overseas in 2006

6. Online advertisers will employ holistic targeting methods to deliver better results and reduce reliance on high-profile, high-CPM ad buys

7. Technology and better data access will transform online advertising success to a formulaic equation

8. Japan will be the next frontier for paid search and interactive marketing

9. Mobile carriers will adopt new ad models to boost revenue beyond usage

10. Performance-based pricing models will demonstrate the true value of search engine marketing (SEM) as a lead generation channel

(Detailed info is here)

And while I read this, I also saw a post at PFSK pointing me to a post at the longtail:

Down:

  • Box Office: down by 7% this year (tickets per capita have fallen every year since 2001).
  • Newspapers: circulation, which peaked in 1987, is declining faster than ever and is down another 2.6% so far this year.
  • Music: Sales are down another 5.7% this year; although digital downloads (still just 6% of the business) are climbing nicely.
  • Radio: down 4% this year alone, continuing a multi-decade decline.
  • Books: down by 7% in 2004 (but see comments below for discussion)
  • Mixed:

  • DVDs: sales growth is slowing dramatically, from 29% last year to single digits this year.
  • TV: Total viewership is still rising, but as channels proliferate and the audience fragments the rating of the average show continues to decline.
  • * Magazines: Ad revenues are up a bit although the number of ad pages is flat (they’re charging more per page). Circulation is also flat, while newsstand sales are at an all-time low.

  • Videogames: it’s the final few months of the current generation of consoles, which tends to the trough of the buying cycle. Sales were down 20% in Sept, but will probably pick up by Christmas with the launch of the Xbox 360.
  • Up:

  • Internet advertising:
    –Banners: Up 10% this year
    –Keywords: Google revenues up 96%
  • Interesting trends, alltogether.

    A whole new idea how to present a 360 shot of a car on Saab’s new Microsite

    As I just found out through these two blogs, Saab has launched a new microsite for their Saab95.

    While the microsite features the usual suspects („tell a friend“, „take a test drive“, „watch the TV commercial“) there are two things worth mentioning. One thing I really enjoyed, the other one almost fascinated me.

    What I enjoyed was the emo-clip. Probably at least 2 minutes long, it shows the car in action and a whole lot of motion. And that’s what I liked: it doesn’t just show the car as such. Quite a few times, the film is more artistic in nature, with nice effects and sequences of streets at night, etc.

    However, what caught my attention: On most car sites, you get the typical 360 shot of the car. Some Java applet (or something similar), that let’s you spin the car around and look at it from all sides. If it comes to worst all that is even shown on a plain white background.

    Saab (who’s their agency?) has created a little story around these 360 shots that makes it all the more worthwile exploring the entire site: you see the car stopped in the middle of a swedish forest – I guess the TV trailer spot acts as a prequel to explain what’s happening on the microsite. It just sits there, within that snow covered scenery (think of stereotypical Sweden!). An in the dark, you can see the eyes of several animals living in the woods.

    By clicking on these animals, you can look at the car through their eyes, which allows you at the same time to take different viewing angles of the car. For example: the red fox looks at the front of the car – sort of from below, because he’s small – while the moose looks at the back of the car. And because the moose taller, he can also look through the rear window onto the dashboard of the car, so you can see the inside.

    Saab Microsite

    Once you’ve seen through the eyes of every animal, it will give you the option to look through the eyes of a lynx. But you’ll discover is a little bit of swedish humour instead.

    Nike’s digital-only launch

    As PSFK and Adverblog write, Nike launched the new Tiempo Legend shoe featuring Ronaldinho in most media other than above the line. Especially through mobile, online and vidcasts, hoping that „magic viral“ will take over and spread the word – or rather videos.

    Well, I can only assume it did work fine sofar. My cousin already sent me the main video of the microsite a week ago, when I didn’t even know about this campaign. However, it was taken a little out of context. While Ronaldinho plays, what’s called on the site „brazilian ping pong“, I got the video via email with the subject line: „I’d prefer if he would actually manage to hit the goal instead“. But we all (even I, the most soccer illiterate) know Ronaldinho, so that missing context doesn’t hurt.

    The target group knows everything about Nike shoes and Ronaldinho, I am sure. So when they receive that video, it’s spot on.

    Considering the fact that this video even spread to people like me is a good sign of success. Even though it might appear accidental, that I receive something like it – or, on the contrary, quite obvious, as I spend most of my time online – even I have spent some considerable time with the Nike brand now.

    „Attack of the Blogs“

    Oh my god. They really don’t get it, do they?

    Attack of the Blogs writes Forbes and proved just by this, that they don’t understand a thing about the new media landscape.

    „Some of these bloggers have just one goal, and that is to do damage. It’s evil,“ […] Suddenly they are the ultimate vehicle for brand-bashing, personal attacks, political extremism and smear campaigns. […] Bloggers are more of a threat than people realize, and they are only going to get more toxic. This is the new reality

    The new reality is: the consumer has found a way of more effectively voicing their opinion outside of the artificial settings of „marketing research“. Shame on us for stating our opinions, how could we?

    A Kryptonite lock is faulty, bloggers blog about it. So who is evil, the bloggers?
    Neil French discriminates women, bloggers blog about it. Then, Neil says it was „Death by Blog. No, Sir. If you say such things, then you’ve committed suicide. The damage was already done. Bloggers are just commenting that foolish suicide attempt.

    Blogs only enable people to reach more people for a simple thing that has always been done: word-of-mouth.

    And don’t forget: people also start blogs just to praise their favourite brand! Is that evil?

    Some companies now use blogs as a weapon, unleashing swarms of critics on their rivals. „I’d say 50% to 60% of attacks are sponsored by competitors,“

    Now that might well be, but with 20 million blogs out there, individual blogs can only start a damage, if they achieve a viral spread of whatever they’re complaining about. And things only spread, if people believe in the message (because they agree, or because the message sounds believable).

    The new reality is greater transparency, as word-of-mouth messages spread faster than they did the previous 2000+ years. If companies can’t cope with this increased transparency, it should make you think.

    May be Forbes should start reading their competitors magazines. Two articles on the importance of blogs are at Businessweek and Fortune.

    (via Micropersuasion and Jaffe Juice)

    Google wants to start serious media planning/reselling including TV

    The New York Post writes about Google aiming at more share of the offline mediaplanning cake.

    Google, already dabbling in print ads, recently confirmed that it’s „mulling“ ways to extend its ad-brokering system to television spots as well.
    If Google succeeds, it would mark a major turning point for an industry that has rebuffed other attempts at creating new ways to buy and sell TV ad time.

    But some are dubious about this:

    „Most sellers don’t want to put their inventory in someone else’s control,“

    Also, many doubt that TV ads can be planned by computer models. And considering the fact that after having bought TV placements, there is a lot of post-booking stockmarket like haggling going on, whenever shows seem to fail or succeed, I also doubt this can be done by computers.

    According to the article, Enron already unsuccessfully tried this kind of gig in 2001, though not being able to attract any of the major networks or media firms.

    Remaining interesting, though, is Googles attempts of trying to start business units in market segments that would at first seem untypical for their known business operation.

    Some open source critique

    Over at the Maneuver Marketing Communique, there is some strong criticism against the idea of open source marketing. (I actually found this through the response of James Cherkoff)
    Now while I am also not sure, if we need a new buzzword, such as „listenomics“ as Bob Garfield called it, and some of the arguments of vSente are not bad at all, I still think they miss the point:

    Open Source Marketing will never get off the starting line because the vast majority of consumers simply DO NOT WANT TO PARTICIPATE. The vast majority will not draw pictures, create blogs, read blogs, engage in conversations, establish a relationship, join a network, offer advice or file complaints for the several thousand different products and services […] What most consumers want as a base line are products and services that are fairly priced, honestly presented and easy to get. Beyond that consumers want to be wowed, dazzled, impressed and entertained…

    Now that is disappointing and almost insulting. Not necessarily to the vast majority mentioned, but open source marketing (or open source advertising, ) is never intended for the great masses of indifferentially buying consumers (at least I wouldn’t think so). That’s why we’ll allways need „classical“ push advertising, whatever that might entail, in the context of greater consumer control over media consumption.

    Taking the good old 80/20 rule in to consideration, you will find that the top segment of customers actually want to be very much involved with your brand.
    They might actually produce ads (
    without having been asked to), they might start blogs about their favourite brand, and the most ambitious advocates will even go through the effort of making short clips.
    And many of those who don’t, will still be very much involved with the brand and happily enjoy the consumer generated ads, if not for the feel of closeness and relevance. The perception of „I could“ is enough for quite a few to feel engaged.

    Now of course, this alone doesn’t necessarily sell individual products. But then again, did any brand image advertising ever seriously intend to do that?

    Going beyond the arguments above: We need to differentiate between promotional and brand advertising. Nowadays the disctinction might be minimal, because companies most often try to do both at the same time. Nevertheless, brand advertising is about long term ties with the customer base, as well as connecting with the prospect base. Promotional advertising is about short term sales to either target group.

    This differentiation is important, because establishing a close tie or bond with your top 20%, the fans, the advocates, doesn’t only result in (long term) revenues with these few people. They will also go on and tell the average 7 people about why they buy your brand. (This will, of course, also happen with short term offers. But only for the time the offer lasts.)
    All of a sudden, brand image advertising is a trigger for word-of-mouth, and the reach of any successful brand advertising is much greater than measurable in commonly applied ad metrics.

    So back to the point whether open source marketing makes sense or not: These days, when consumers have greater control over media consumption (and, increasingly, their production – think podcasts, videos and vidcasts, blogs), there is an increasing tendency to exert this control or even take part in the production.

    My assumption is, that the more people can take part in the overall communication about anything, they will do so, starting with what’s most relevant and interesting for them (of course). For our case, it’s the brands that they might choose to communicate about – and WITH.

    We need to make sure, that the small but loyal and advocating group of brand fans can take part in shaping, and communicating with, „their“ brands. Be it through creating ads, or even taking part in how the products/services are designed and offered.
    As the level of the individual’s involvement in today’s communication about any topic is increasing, companies should make sure, that their favourite brand is ready for the conversation.

    The Cluetrain Manifesto says: „Markets are conversations“. It doesn’t say Markets are Speeches (not even those based on „listening“ research).

    Heineken UK Quits TV

    Random Culture writes Heineken UK Quits TV, in order to invest more in POS marketing. All because the clutter on TV is increasing, and Sky Plus, enabling viewers to skip ads, is on it’s way in the UK (writes Times Online)
    And Random Culture wonders:

    Umm, wow… did anyone tell them about this whole Internet thing? Most people seem to be taking money away from TV and putting it online. This move by Heineken UK seems to be a move in the opposite direction.

    Though I also happily write about companies putting their TV and Print budgets online, I don’t think it’s a logical step to put it there. Quite often, other channels might have the same or even more impact. May be POS can increase sales much more than any online campaign? (I’m sure Heineken has done their homework.)

    In addition, they will remain on TV during sport events, when they sponsor short �break bumpers�, as they call it.
    The question arises whether the brand image can be sustained through these marketing activities.