Adverblog has found some predictions for online advertising in 2006.

1. Consumer-generated media will become increasingly attractive to advertisers

2. Advertisers will continue shifting traditional ad spending to the Web due to increased Internet consumption and better targeting/reporting capabilities

3. Advertisers, cable providers and interactive marketing experts will collaborate to address „The TiVo Effect“

4. Brand advertisers will drive the next wave of growth for the paid search market

5. Best practices in localized mobile marketing will be perfected overseas in 2006

6. Online advertisers will employ holistic targeting methods to deliver better results and reduce reliance on high-profile, high-CPM ad buys

7. Technology and better data access will transform online advertising success to a formulaic equation

8. Japan will be the next frontier for paid search and interactive marketing

9. Mobile carriers will adopt new ad models to boost revenue beyond usage

10. Performance-based pricing models will demonstrate the true value of search engine marketing (SEM) as a lead generation channel

(Detailed info is here)

And while I read this, I also saw a post at PFSK pointing me to a post at the longtail:


  • Box Office: down by 7% this year (tickets per capita have fallen every year since 2001).
  • Newspapers: circulation, which peaked in 1987, is declining faster than ever and is down another 2.6% so far this year.
  • Music: Sales are down another 5.7% this year; although digital downloads (still just 6% of the business) are climbing nicely.
  • Radio: down 4% this year alone, continuing a multi-decade decline.
  • Books: down by 7% in 2004 (but see comments below for discussion)
  • Mixed:

  • DVDs: sales growth is slowing dramatically, from 29% last year to single digits this year.
  • TV: Total viewership is still rising, but as channels proliferate and the audience fragments the rating of the average show continues to decline.
  • * Magazines: Ad revenues are up a bit although the number of ad pages is flat (they’re charging more per page). Circulation is also flat, while newsstand sales are at an all-time low.

  • Videogames: it’s the final few months of the current generation of consoles, which tends to the trough of the buying cycle. Sales were down 20% in Sept, but will probably pick up by Christmas with the launch of the Xbox 360.
  • Up:

  • Internet advertising:
    –Banners: Up 10% this year
    –Keywords: Google revenues up 96%
  • Interesting trends, alltogether.