Crowdsourcing predictions for books and movies: Media Predict

There is a new prediction market leveraging the crowds wisdom: Media Predict.

Here’s how it works: when users register, they get 5,000 virtual dollars to begin investing. They can scan the markets for book proposals, up-and-coming musical acts, script treatments and TV pilots. Each is valued in virtual dollars per share based on perceived potential. If shares of a particular book proposal are going for 55 dollars, for instance, the book has about a 55% chance of being published. If a project seems like it might take off, a wise investor can put his or her money behind it. Or, conversely, he or she can sell if stock seems like it might plummet. In doing so, players drive the market value—and those who have a keen eye for the next big blockbuster get rewarded for it. When a deal goes through—for instance, if a book proposal gets signed to a publisher—shares pay off at USD 100 each. And on the flipside, when a venture doesn’t succeed, share value bottoms out at USD 0.

(From: Crowdfinding the next blockbuster).

I doubt this mechanism will really display the true future potential of a book/movie. The danger of having typical stockmarket ralleyes is too high.

People putting money against movies, not because they might actually succeed, but only because they can potentially earn some money through the speculation on the Media Predict Website.

In the end, there will be people voting for movies they don’t actually consider worth watching in the first place. This would obviously contradict the purpose of this website.

Interactive cinema movies controlled by your mobile phone

Wow, this sounds great:

…the six-minute-long interactive movie is in the „choose you own adventure“ style and generates 16 different endings depending on the choices of the audience. During the adverts the audience are given 4 different questions to answer and which they need to text to a given number. The final version of the movie is compiled from the clips that gather the most votes (which is all handled digitally). (via Adverblog)

Fiat Cinema

There also is a campaign site offering the same for the home viewer. First, you select which type of scenes you want (my portuguese is not so good, so I just chose randomly):


and then you can see your „selfmade“ movie:

Fiat 2

Even though the idea of the campaign site is nice, the WOW-effect of sitting in a movie theater and being able to influence what’s on the big screen is of course much more amazing.

However, I hope they let it run 2-3 times at least, because if they only do that once, you won’t be able to getting a feeling how the movie changes from time to time and might even assume that it’s the same movie every day…

Yahoo!’s Time Capsule

Yahoo! has launched a time capsule:

Yahoo today announced the launch of what is expected to be the world’s largest time capsule in history. Starting today, Yahoo! is encouraging people from around the world to contribute personal photos, stories, thoughts, ideas, poems, prayers, home movies, music and art to an online anthropology project designed to celebrate and understand life and global culture in 2006. Content from the time capsule will be broadcast directly onto the 216-foot tall Pyramid of the Sun in Teotihuacan and sent into space through a light beam from the historic monument.

Sounds great, let’s participate…