Seth Godin has a post called They didn’t get the memo, referring to Rogers Diffusion of innovations while stating numbers of technology adoption:

  • 31.4% of Americans don’t have internet access.
  • 90% of the people in France have not created a blog.
  • 88% of all users have never heard of RSS.
  • 59% of American households have zero iPods in them.
  • 30% of internet users in the US use a modem.

When you look at the numbers from a different angle, it doesn’t look all that bad:

  • 68,6% of Americans already have internet access.
  • 10% of the people in France have already created a blog.
  • 12% of all users have already heard of RSS.
  • 41% of American households already have iPods in them.
  • 70% of internet users in the US do not use a modem any longer.

Considering Rogers types of adopters (innovators (2.5%), early adopters (13.5%), early majority (34%), late majority (34%) and laggards (16%)) and assuming, that you can plot the figures of technology adoption in a linear fashion to the figures of Rogers adopters types (I know, I know…):

  • internet access: reached the „late majority“ already
  • Blogs in France: still only „early adopters“
  • RSS: still only „early adopters“
  • iPods: already „early majority“
  • remaining modem usage: only the „late majority“ remaining

One problem with this (apart from the „hands-on-approach“ to statistics): Would the percentage brackets of Rogers adopters-types still be relevant today? They were defined in 1962, when even „innovators“ probably only found a few new gadgets every year and had lots of time to explore them. And the „late majority“ most likely took many years to adopt anything…



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