Crowdsourcing predictions for books and movies: Media Predict

There is a new prediction market leveraging the crowds wisdom: Media Predict.

Here’s how it works: when users register, they get 5,000 virtual dollars to begin investing. They can scan the markets for book proposals, up-and-coming musical acts, script treatments and TV pilots. Each is valued in virtual dollars per share based on perceived potential. If shares of a particular book proposal are going for 55 dollars, for instance, the book has about a 55% chance of being published. If a project seems like it might take off, a wise investor can put his or her money behind it. Or, conversely, he or she can sell if stock seems like it might plummet. In doing so, players drive the market value—and those who have a keen eye for the next big blockbuster get rewarded for it. When a deal goes through—for instance, if a book proposal gets signed to a publisher—shares pay off at USD 100 each. And on the flipside, when a venture doesn’t succeed, share value bottoms out at USD 0.

(From: Crowdfinding the next blockbuster).

I doubt this mechanism will really display the true future potential of a book/movie. The danger of having typical stockmarket ralleyes is too high.

People putting money against movies, not because they might actually succeed, but only because they can potentially earn some money through the speculation on the Media Predict Website.

In the end, there will be people voting for movies they don’t actually consider worth watching in the first place. This would obviously contradict the purpose of this website.



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